What I'm Watching For, 12-5

It's the final week of the college football regular season, so before I start getting misty-eyed, here's what I'm looking for going into the weekend.

ACC Championship Game
No. No, no, no, no. I will not watch this game. Two years ago, I was watching the Army-Navy game because I'm a slave to tradition and I watch it every year. During the commercials, I flipped over to that year's ACC Championship between Georgia Tech and Wake Forest and was horrified. I kid you not, I couldn't watch the ACC game because it was so much slower. Slower than Army-Navy? What the hell, is the ACC paying tribute to Charles Barkley's athletic ability? I should also mention that this game included Calvin Johnson-- and it was still more boring than 160 men now serving in Iraq playing a regimented pick up game.

While I understand it's unfair to blow off a conference based on one match up in the rain, this year's match up looks equally unappealing. Virginia Tech v. Boston College? Uggh. Alright, let me see here. Going out on a limb, but Virginia Tech's keys to the game will be based around blocking a punt at some point and also getting some rushing yards from their QB. Speaking of which, can we please outlaw the phrase "Beamer Ball?" It's the coaching equivalent of calling a RB tandem "Thunder and Lightening." Alliteration is the instrument of the simple and the sportswriter. Boston College will rely on having solid QB play (no INTs, 2 Pass TDs) and a good run defense. Wow, I'm right and have only watched these teams play a combined 3 games. This match up sucks.

Prediction: BC 17- VT 14

Big 12 Game
This game is much more interesting. I know everyone thinks it's going to be a blowout, but I think it'll be a game for at least a half. Keys to the game:

Oklahoma: How their defense tackles. While I think the pass rush is key against any pass-happy spread offense, especially an offense run by a QB as familiar with the system as Chins Daniel, I don't think it's as important in this game. When Hoogs, Herbie and I watched the the Texas-Mizzou game, I was struck by how well the Texas defense tackled the Tigers skill players. Chins rarely throws the ball downfield, even less the Texas Tech, and instead relies on hitting their fast skill position players on 3-7 yard routes in space to let them build up speed and collect a ton of YAC (The stat that is to me what Sly Croom is to Uncle D. I can't get enough YACity YAC). When you tackle these players as soon as they get the ball, you completely neutralize the offense. OU did it against Texas Tech exceptionally well, and if they face Florida, they'll have to do it again.

Mizzou: This team lives and dies by Chins Daniel. If he is flustered in the pocket, if he's inaccurate because his footwork is off, if he can't use his legs to keep a defense honest, this team is sunk. If you doubt me, plug in the tape from the Oklahoma State and Texas games.

Prediction: OU 56- Mizzou- 24

SEC Title Game
The big game of the day. I would also like to promise you that I will not cop out and say that the "game will be decided upfront." Thanks, media, let's also throw in their the key to the game is the turnover margin. When was the last time you watched a game and thought, "Wow, this team has no offensive or defensive line, but than god they have that free safety, he's single handedly wining the game for them!?" The line is always key, so let's have some original analysis. For me, original requires me tapping my inner Ron Jaworski, commentator for the NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE.

Florida: The key to this game is Tim Tebow's rushing statistics. When Tebow is forced to be the primary running back for the Florida offense, the teams struggles. Those hands should only be used for 3 yard swing passes, handoffs, and pre-teen Asian circumcisions. The two games where their offense had the most problems rushing the ball-- Miami and Mississippi-- also happened to be their first close call and actual upset this year. Remember how good the offense looked when Tebow took that 4th and 1 off the right guard at the end of the Ole Miss game? If Percy Harvin is healthy enough to play it will certainly ease the burden, but Florida needs to be able to run the ball with Jeff Demps, Chris Rainey and Emanual Moody if they are going to outscore Alabama.

Update: Harvin will apparently "need a miracle" to be able to play according to ESPN-- Brooks

Alabama: I'll again turn to the Ole Miss game. College football has shown that there are no good defenses out there this year, only some teams with better offenses than others. So if Alabama is going to beat Florida, they are going to have to out-score them. Ole Miss was successful against Florida by having great balance (140 yards rushing, 185 passing). Brandon Spikes, the MLB for Florida, is by far the best player on their defense, and nothing freezes and neutralizes a middle linebacker better than a play-action based offense to keep him guessing. Balance will also allow John Parker "Brooks" Wilson to exploit a young Florida secondary peeking into the backfield with play action passes deep. If 'Bama gets one dimensional, whether because of the Florida D studding out or the Florida offense putting them in a big hole, then they're done.

Prediction (wishful): Tide 31- Gators 28