Big 10 Season Preview

Welcome to another great year of football in the heartland! We are here to talk about one of the country's most legendary and talked about conferences. Before we being, however, a brief explanation. I open with a picture of Donna Martin from 90210, because she encapsulates the Big 10. At the start of the 2009 Bowl Season, I wrote about how she was like the Big 10 in that while the Big 10 wasn’t the best conference in the nation, it still was pretty good. This time, I am going to amend my thesis. For fans like me, we are going to spend this season feeling a lot like David Silver.




The popular kids (SEC and Big 12) are having raging parties that we don’t get invited to, other guys (any freshman USC recruits) are dating sluttier girls that put out almost immediately. But people like me, who truly love Big 10 football, we are stuck in a long term relationship with Donna. Donna, the girl who no one would mistake for Kelly Taylor (and definitely, definitely not Valerie Malone). Donna, the girl who is saving herself for marriage while everyone else could . . . go . . . all . . . the . . . way.

So, it’s going to be a frustrating year for the Big 10. The teams are overall down, and dear lord we hope that there will be no further BCS embarrassments. Good news is, that like David, we have found someone who will ultimately make us happy. Likewise. the Big 10 is finally in position for long-term success. They have five good coaches, have expanded recruiting beyond the Great Lakes region, and are now starting to schedule the same number of 1-AA cupcakes as the SEC and Big 12 to ensure bowl eligibility.

So, here are my predictions for the final Big 10 standings:

1. Ohio State: Ohio State lost a lot from last season’s team, but they still bring back the most talent at the most important positions. Their offensive line should be much better than last year with the addition of Michigan-transfer Justin Boren (aka Judas) opening holes for the run game. They return their entire two-deep on the defensive line and are always deep at linebacker (watch for the battle between senior Austin Spitler and freshmen Etienne Sabino for the MLB spot), and have two good returning running backs in Brandon Saine and Dan Herron. Most importantly, they bring back 2010 Heisman favorite Terrelle Pryor at QB.

The big test for Ohio State nationally will be Sept 12 when they host the Trojans, a game the entire conference desperately needs Ohio State to win for street cred, since right now the Big 10 is the anti-Marlo Stanfield. If all the Big 10 has its name, then it’s screwed. The next tough test will be on the road at Penn State, a game that will ultimately decide who gets the conference’s Rose Bowl bid. Tressell gets another Big 10 title this year, but next year will be interesting.

2. Penn State: Penn State also returns a lot, particularly stud QB Daryll Clark and RB Evan Royster. They have also returned to the glory days of “Linebacker U,” with stud Navarro Brown returning this year and teaming up with a now healthy Sean Lee. The only reason Penn State will not repeat as Big 10 champ is that they lack strength along the offensive line. They lost 3 all conference selections from the previous year, and you cannot win in the cold Big 10 without a strong offensive line.

Penn State decided to only schedule high school teams as their non-conference opponents, so their season hinges on whether or not they can run the table in conference. Their home game against Ohio State will obviously get the most national attention, but they should be careful not to look past Michigan on October 24. They haven’t won in the Big House since the late 90s, and if they don’t pull it off again this year, the Nittany Lions will be Capital Bowl-bound.

3. Michigan State: Most people are sleeping on how good Michigan State is going to be this year. Most of the attention in the media has focused on how MSU lost workhorse RB Javon Ringer, but they have overlooked what coach Mark Dantonio has built in East Lansing. Dantonio is Jim Tressell’s identical twin, and he wants MSU to mimic Ohio State. That means they will be loaded with talented running backs and a lot of big uglies on the O Line and the defensive front 7. It may not look great in photos, and it may not look great in bowl games, but he did win 9 games a year ago for a reason. Look for a similar output from the Spartans in ‘09.

What will be interesting will be to see is whether or not MSU can get over the hump and win a game against the big guys on their schedule. Can they beat a newly re-loaded Michigan and Notre Dame? Can they hold home field against Penn State? Will they slip up against someone like Illinois? I don’t think these will happen, which is why they are sticking here in the 3 spot.

4. Iowa: Iowa is looking to build off it’s crushing 31-10 Outback Bowl victory over South Carolina, and possibly make its first run at the Big 10 title since 2004. They lose Shonn Greene, so they will have to be a more pass-oriented team under Jr. QB Jim Stanzi. They also return all 3 starters at linebacker, which should be huge for the defense. It’s a big year for Coach Kirk Firentz. After four years of mediocrity, he needs to show that he’s ready to take Iowa to the top of the conference again.

On September 19, on national TV, Iowa will have the chance to show just how good they are when they play Arizona. If they win this game, the can ride the momentum through conference play. If they lose, the wheels could fall of early. They play at Penn State, at Wisconsin, at Michigan State and at Ohio State, however, so it looks like an 8 win season for the Hawkeyes with an Alamo Bowl bid.

5. Michigan: Coming off what was without a doubt the worst season in school history, Michigan will start its bounce back to the top of the conference in 2009. At Coach Rich Rodriguez’s last three stops—Clemson, Tulane, and West Virginia—the second year witnessed a jump to either 8 or 9 wins. While I’m not sure that will happen in the Big 10, the addition of freshman Tate Forcier, a healthy RB Brandon Minro, and an experienced O line that returns all five starters, will transform the Michigan offense by building a dominant run game.

Michigan’s season hinges on how they play at home. Their second game of the year is at home against Notre Dame, they host Penn State a month later, and they close at home against Ohio State. If Michigan is ready to contend again, they need to win at least one of these three games. I think they will get one, and will pull off 7 wins and a bowl berth.

6. Illinois: On paper, Illinois should be a great team in 2009. Their passing offense should be awesome, as QB Juice Williams is entering his fourth year as a starter and has two stud WR to feed the ball to in Arrelious Benn and Jarred Fayson. The only problem? First, up until this point, the “forward pass” has pretty much mystified Juice (even if he got his completion percentage up to 58% last year, that’s still weak for a college player). The other major problem? Their coach is still f-cking Ron Zook. That means they will be unquestionably the most talented 7-5 team in the country.

Illinois is another team that has a must win game for the good of the conference: their season opener with Missouri. If Illinois can beat a Big 12 team, then they have street cred. If not? Well, honestly, does anyone really think Ron Zook will win this? Look at the rest of their schedule. Tell me which game you don’t think, “I could see Ron Zook blowing this one.” Michigan? Minnesota? Northwestern? Purdue? Admit it, you don’t trust his teams in any of these. There is a reason for that. This team will have one great win, but will also drop 2-3 games against embarrassingly weak opponents.

7. Northwestern: This team is really, really hard to predict. Pat Fitzgerald is a great coach. He runs an awesome offense and takes teams with weaker talent and convinces them that they can compete with anybody, like he did in the Alamo Bowl last year when the Wildcats took heavily favored Missouri to OT. But can they really do it in back-to-back years? Pat Fitzgerald had two bad losing seasons before 2008, are they really good to win again, with the added pressure of increased expectations?

The answer is probably not, but luckily their non-conference schedule is highlighted by a game at Syracuse, so they should be OK for bowl eligibility. They also avoid Ohio State and Michigan, which should help them. Overall, they should be solid but not great this year. 6-6 or maybe 7-5.

8. Minnesota: Well, it’s time to find out whether or not coach Tim Brewster belongs on Entourage. Up to this point, he has acted the part of Ari Gold: inexplicably positive, endlessly selling anyone who will listen to the positives they see in a failing client, and I think incredibly homophobic. Start that rumor. Tell everyone. The Golden Gophers return 10 players on offense including QB Adam Weber, which is good. The bad news is that they return 8 players from an awful defense. You need a good defense to be successful, and I’m not sure offensive coach/life coach Brewster has the gumption to turn that around this fast.

The big news on their schedule is that for the first time in years, the Gophers will not play Michigan for the Little Brown Jug. On the plus side, they added South Dakota State, so, you know, at least they aren’t p---ies. They play at Ohio State, at Penn State, at Iowa and at Northwestern. They could easily loose all of these games. Minnesota is still another year away.

9. Wisconsin: Before I start, can I remind you that if it weren’t for a shanked extra point, Wisconsin would have lost to Cal Poly last year. Cal Poly. Not a typo. Not a misprint. No, you aren’t drunk. No, you aren’t hallucinating. Cal Poly.

This year’s team is worse. Take a minute to process that. They return only 11 starters, including nothing on offense other than a crappy quarterback. Wisconsin is effed in the eh, and Sportscenter is ecstatic to welcome Brett Bielema to the Budweiser Hot Seat.




10. Indiana: As an alum, let’s be frank: Indiana will suck this year. Now that that is over, here is a preview for Indiana, courtesy of Midwestern Sports Fans:

“For the first time in a while, news regarding Indiana basketball is starting to become consistently positive. Crean and Crimson indeed.

According to the Indianapolis Star, Indiana and Tom Crean recently received a verbal commitment from Christian Watford, a 6-8 small forward out of Birmingham, Alabama. Watford is ranked anywhere from No.12 to No.34 by various recruiting services. According to recruiting analyst Bob Gibbons, the commitment of Christian Watford moves Indiana into a tie for the top 2009 recruiting with North Carolina.

All I have to say is…hell yes!”

Yep, that’s a basketball preview. Trust me, it’s all the Hoosiers got.

11. Purdue: Purdue will be worse than Indiana. They were terrible last year under Joe Tiller and his spread offense, and now they have a new coach, a new offensive system, and a new QB to work out. Don’t even both looking at their schedule, just trust me on this one: there is a better than 50% chance that they go winless in conference play this year. Hope abounds in West Lafayette, but it won’t hit until 2011.