What I'm Watching For, Week 4

As we finish the first month of the season, we have a lot to look forward to: some non-conference match ups, the start of play, and most importantly, no longer having to hear about how awesome USC is. What is amazing is that some people think Matt Barkley would have made a difference last week-- umm, really, what Ohio State game were those people watching? The kid is still a freshman, so regardless of talent, he's mediocre at best right now.

On to week four

1. Royster in the Spotlight: One of the day's marquee match ups is Penn State v. Iowa in Happy Valley. After surviving a scare against Northern Iowa, the Hawkeyes have turned in back to back performances against Iowa State and Arizona. The weather is supposed to be iffy, Iowa has a great front 7 that has forced 7 turnovers in its last 2 games, and Penn State is missing two starters on defense. That means that Penn State is going to need a big performance from RB Evan Royster. While Penn St QB Daryll Clark is great, in the Big 10 if you can't run you won't be able to set up the pass.

2. Let Down Week: Washington has spent the past week basking in the glory of its return to the Top 25, and consequently, its return to the Top 25. Now they travel to Stanford to play a Cardinal team that has emerged as a pretty good offense under sophomore QB Andrew Luck, who is completing 62% of his passes and has a 2:1 TD-INT ratio. Also, we saw how last week that Pete Carroll's teams tend to get really up for a big game, then have an immediate let down. Washington Coach Steve Sarkisian's mentor? Pete Carroll. Watch for the Cardinal to pull off the upset at home and for Washington to again be expelled out of the polls.

3. Magic Number is 31: I don't know the last time we saw a regular season game that pitted ranked, conference opponents that play such sharply different styles of football than Virginia Tech and Miami. After beat Georgia Tech at home, Miami showed that is is again a high-octane offense under QB Jacory Harris, who has completed almost 70% of his passes and 5 TDs in two games. Also, ESPN has drooled about how Miami has "its swagger back," because they challenged almost everyone short of the Dolphins after their big win last Thursday. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, showed last week that under Beamer Ball they can beat a ranked opponent while only having one competent drive on offense all game long. The Magic Number is in this game is 31: if the two teams combine for 31 points or fewer, advantage Virginia Tech. If its more, then look for Miami to win in Lane Stadium.

The same is true in the SEC, where defensive mastermind Nick Saban welcomes offensive genius Bobby Petrino and QB Ryan Mallett to Tuscaloosa. The difference in this game? Alabama can also score behind RB Mark Ingram and WR Julio Jones on a porous Hogs defense that just gave up 40 point to Georgia. 30 is still the magic number in this game, but it's a spread and not an over under. How many scoring drives can the Hogs actually pull off against Alabama and Mount Cody?

4. Next Big Upset?: We already read RAE's account of the week's big upset, unranked South Cakalaki beating #4 Ole Miss at home. The question is, who is the next team to lose? Iowa knocked Penn State out of title game contention last year, and seemed poise to white Penn State out of the championship again. Cal has the dreaded "trap game," as they travel to Eugene to play unranked Oregon in between match ups against Minnesota and USC. Ohio State hosts Illinois, a team that knocked off the Buckeyes at the 'Shoe two years ago under then sophomore QB Juice Williams on their way to the Rose Bowl. Houston plays Texas Tech at Cougar Town, one of the few teams that can match the Cougars in terms airpower.

My pick, though? I'm calling Mississippi State over LSU. I personally thank LSU is way overranked right now, MSU is putting up more points than ever under new coach Dan Mullen, and LSU already showed its defense can be gashed for big yards when they gave up 400+ against Washington. MSU will at least cover the spread, but I think LSU is going to be in trouble come the end of the day today.