If you want some background on the games, you can check out ESPN's first round predictions or Inside Lacrosse's 10 players to watch this weekend. For the full bracket, click here. Here are my predictions for the first round of the tournament.
Johns Hopkins v Brown: If you don't follow lacrosse, Johns Hopkins is basically the Duke basketball of the sport. They are a school that is supposed to be too small and too academically rigorous to compete at a high level. But it is located in Baltimore, which produces the same percentage of D1 lacrosse players as California, Texas and Florida combined in college football, so they get insane talent and compete every year. They are down this year, however, having dropped out of the top 5 for the first time in what seems like my life. They are weak at attack and goalie, so I think this will be one of my first round upsets: the Bears move on.
UMBC v North Carolina: North Carolina has been a streaky team all year, starting off 6-0 then going 2-4 including 0-3 in ACC play, then ending the year with a 3 game streak to get to the ACC title game (which they lost). UMBC, on the other hand, has been remarkably consistent this year. 2 of their 3 losses are to quality teams Princeton and Hopkins, and have upsets over Maryland and Ohio State. This one will be really close, but at the end of the day UNC is a one man show offensively behind Billy Bitters, while UMBC can shoot outside or get to the crease all day long.
Hofstra v Cornell: Cornell has been a top 5 team all year long, and while Hofstra has made a great run this year, the Big Red is too much for the Pride (yeah, not kidding with that name). Max Seibald was one of the top 5 players in the country last year, and he remains unstoppable coming out of the midfield-- he'll beat shorties, Long Stick Middies or close D. This one could get ugly, Cornell by at least 5.
Navy v Duke: Both of these teams have recent memories of miracle runs that fell just short. In 2004 unseeded Navy lost in teh finals to Syracuse at the height of the "Support Our Troops" moment in the country, while Duke lost the last two title games in their attempt to vindicate themselves from the disastrous 2006 rape case that cost them their best team in school history. This year, Navy got a late season push to win the Patriot League while Duke started off slow, but then went undefeated in the ACC regular season and tourament (including two lop sided victories over top seeded Virginia). Duke's offense is on fire this year, scoring at least 12 times in 5 of their last 6 games. Duke moves on to round 2.
Virginia v Villanova: Virginia is the best team in the country this year, having only dropped 2 games and count wins against Hopkins, Syracuse, Maryland, Cornell, UNC and Towson, and feature the country's best player, in my opinion, in attackman Danny Glading. 'Nova will be lucky to stay with 8 in this game.
Notre Dame v Maryland: The most intriguing game of the first round. Notre Dame is the only undefeated team in the country, but played a really weak schedule. Maryland played a ridiculously tough schedule, but beat none of the good teams on it. I think at the end of the day, good ball movement is essential in the postseason to get open shots against amped up defenses, and Maryland's ball movement is pathetic. Notre Dame moves on.
Siena v Syracuse: Siena has a couple of big transfers from the ACC, which gives them some talent. But it won't be enough. Syracuse has more national titles than any other team in the sport, is the defending champs with the goalie that took them all the way last year, and as always is a juggernaut on offense. 'Cuse in a blowout.
UMass v Princeton: UMass is an average 9-5 team that I'm not sure should even be in the tournament. Princeton, on the other hand, is the second best team in the country with arguably the nation's best tournament coach, Bill Tierney. He has 6 national titles in the last 20 years, despite coaching at a school that doesn't give out athletic scholarships. His team is young (sophomores lead the team at Mid, Attack and Defense). The Tigers win this game, and are built to make a run not just this, but for a couple years to come.
1 comment:
Not that I know anything about lax, other than that woman's lax utterly baffles me, but I must say I think you are wrong on at least two of the matchups--or at least that I am bodly willing to offer possible upsets that make entirely no sense. First, I think it is clear that UMBC is going to win--why you ask? 'Cause they had the stones to make their mascot (what appears to be) a damn retriever of some sort. To me, that belies a deep seeated confidence and coolness under pressure. Look for them to totally crush those UNC punks.
Likewise, I am going to have to go with Cornell over Hofstra. Not only does Cornell have an alumnus working at Dunder-Mifflin Paper Company, but they are the Bears--and from the looks of it a pissed off one too. I mean, come on, that is no Cal Golden Bear, nor is it a kleptomaniac Yogi Bear--that is an angry, ass kicking bear if I have ever seen one. The key, I think, is the actual attendance of the bear at the game. If it should be there, AND get loose, I just don't see how "The Pride" (nee The Flying Dutchmen--how, by the way, did they ever get rid of THAT mascot) can even stand a chance. Boom goes the dynamite.
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